Monday, March 16, 2009

On the new government...

a friend asked my feelings, here is what I had to say:

My candid feeling is that this recent election is just a reordering of seats on the titanic.

My practical opinion on the matter is that Bibi’s program of a bottom up/economic focus on the “Palestinian” issues is the only plan in town that has a chance of shifting our paradigm away from the futile top down negotiating strategy that has struggled in vain to bring us to a final status agreement leaving much death and destruction in its path.

However, though Bibi’s notion is superior to Livni’s “negotiating the valley from the summit” (in secrecy no less, and throwing caution to the wind), it is merely a superior hypothesis that will be tested and indeed will fail in the long run.

Issues to consider:

How tough will the Obama administration be on Bibi?

Will Kadima choose to undermine Bibi through formal and/or informal channels?

Will sectoral interests within the multi party cabinet undermine progress?

Will Bibi does bolster the economy?

What will his policy on Iran actually translate into?

How will Bibi deal with the notion of talks with Syria and concessions on the Golan Heights?

There are other important questions to consider, but these are the most basic.